Are We Nearing Peak Carbon Emissions?

Peak carbon emissions

A new report from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) indicates carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline by 0.6 per cent this year; even with strong economic growth.

According to the co-author of the report, CSIRO’s Dr Pep Canadell, the biggest contributor to the change has been decreased consumption of coal in China.

“After sustained emissions growth over the past decade, China’s emissions growth slowed to 1.2% in 2014 and is expected to decline by about 4% in 2015,” said Dr Canadell.

Last year, more than half of new energy requirements in China were met from non-fossil fuel sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind energy and solar power.

China (9.7 billion tonnes), the USA (5.6), the EU (3.4) and India (2.6) accounted for almost 60% of global emissions in 2014.

Australia emitted more than 1% of the world’s total carbon emissions from fossil fuels (0.38 billion tonnes) in 2014. While it doesn’t sound like much as a percentage, Australia represents just 0.33 percent of the world´s total population – so we’re still punching well above our weight.

Australia is the 14th largest carbon emissions contributor globally and while its per capita emissions remain high; there has been a significant declining trend over the past 6 years.

While there is some good news, Stanford University’s Professor Rob Jackson, lead author of the report, said even if peak global emissions were reached within a decade or two, massive amounts carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels will still be generated.

“.. many studies suggest a temperature increase of 3°C is now possible and even likely without larger emissions reductions,” states the Global Carbon Project report.

The GCP report examines future emissions pathways that could rein in a global average temperature increase below 2°C this century.

“Most scenarios exceed the carbon budget for a 2°C warming target in the first half of this century, which then requires up to several billion tonnes of emissions to be removed from the atmosphere each year during the second half of the century,” said Dr Canadell.

To achieve climate stabilization, emissions will need to be reduced to near zero.

“Reaching zero emissions will require long-term commitments from countries attending the climate meeting in Paris this week and beyond,” Professor Jackson said.

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