According to a new white paper entitled “The New Solar Market” from Pike Research, although demand for solar energy components will enjoy strong growth this year, events over the last two years have culminated in an oversupply of solar panels, which may see some players face consolidation.
While tough times may be ahead for some solar panel manufacturers, overcapacity and intense competition will help accelerate grid parity for the cost of solar energy to the 2013 timeframe in many markets.
Pike Research forecasts that global solar demand will increase to 10.1 gigawatts (GW) in 2010, a year-over-year increase of almost 43%. It anticipates that solar market demand will exceed 19 GW by 2013, driven by the United States, Italy, and China markets.
The firm believes excess solar panel supply could easily reach 8.3 GW in 2010, even accounting for reasonable utilisation rates and reasonable capacity growth.
In 2010 and beyond, Pike Research says the important competitive differentiators for successful solar companies will be: low cost per watt, solar panel efficiency, and moving down the supply chain to provide “one-stop shopping”.
Pike Research’s paper, “The New Solar Market”, takes a more in-depth looks at the new competitive differentiators that will determine success for solar companies following the industry turmoil of the past two years – events such as the GFC, constrained availability of credit, the plunging price of crystalline silicon solar cells and modules due to falling polysilicon cost and Spain’s dramatic demand decline. A full copy of the white paper is available for free download.
