Australia’s First National Climate Risk Assessment: What It Means for Our Future

Australia has released its first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), a landmark report led by the Australian Climate Service. The assessment provides a national evidence base on how climate change is reshaping risks across our people, environment, economy, and infrastructure. It is the most comprehensive climate risk analysis ever undertaken in this country and sets the stage for future planning and adaptation.

We’ll explore the key findings, the systems most at risk, the eleven priority risks identified by the government, and what this means for everyday Australians. While the content is technical, the stakes are very real. From hotter summers to disrupted supply chains, the NCRA paints a clear picture: we must prepare for a climate future that is already unfolding.

Why a national climate risk assessment matters

Until now, Australia has had fragmented climate risk insights through state, territory, and sector-based studies. The NCRA is the first attempt to bring together a national view of climate threats. It highlights the interconnected nature of risks and how cascading impacts can affect multiple parts of society at once.

Importantly, the assessment will inform the Australian Government’s National Adaptation Plan. It helps governments, businesses, and communities identify where to prioritise adaptation and how to safeguard what matters most: our people, places, and way of life.

Key findings from the assessment

The NCRA identifies 63 nationally significant risks across eight key systems. Among these, eleven priority risks were selected for deeper analysis. The report also introduces seven unique risks faced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, recognising cultural and environmental connections to Country.

Some of the standout findings include:

• Escalating hazards: Extreme heat, bushfires, floods, and coastal inundation will become more intense, frequent, and widespread.
• Risks to people: Health impacts will increase, particularly for the very young, older Australians, outdoor workers, and those already disadvantaged.
• Risks to places: More than 1.5 million Australians could be living in high-risk coastal flood zones by 2050.
• Risks to our way of life: Insurance costs, property losses, domestic migration, and cultural impacts will all rise without action.
• Compounding risks: Climate impacts will rarely occur in isolation, with events increasingly overlapping or cascading into other systems.

The eight systems assessed

The assessment frames climate risk through eight interconnected systems. Each system represents areas of Australian life most affected by climate change:

1. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples: unique cultural, spiritual, and environmental connections to Country are under threat.
2. Communities – urban, regional and remote: settlements of all scales face risks from heatwaves, bushfires, and flooding.
3. Defence and national security: increasing climate emergencies will stretch Australia’s defence resources.
4. Economy, trade and finance: climate change poses risks to productivity, insurance markets, and global trade networks.
5. Health and social support: extreme events will challenge public health, aged care, and disability services.
6. Infrastructure and the built environment: transport, energy, and water systems face escalating risks from extreme events.
7. Natural environment: ecosystems risk collapse, threatening biodiversity and the services nature provides.
8. Primary industries and food: agriculture, fisheries, and forestry are increasingly vulnerable to drought, pests, and biosecurity risks.

The eleven priority risks

Of the 63 risks identified, the government selected eleven for deeper investigation. These are the areas where climate impacts are expected to hit hardest:

1. Coastal communities and settlements: rising seas and erosion threaten homes and infrastructure.
2. Concurrency pressures in emergency response and recovery: overlapping disasters could overwhelm national response capacity.
3. Critical infrastructure: disruption to power, telecommunications, and transport systems risks cascading impacts.
4. Governance: gaps in decision-making and maladaptation increase vulnerability.
5. Health and well-being: more extreme heat, smoke, and vector-borne disease will strain health systems.
6. Natural ecosystems: risks of ecosystem collapse will reduce biodiversity and the services ecosystems provide.
7. Primary industries: productivity declines and biosecurity threats will impact food supply and rural economies.
8. Real economy: financial volatility and shocks could arise from climate-related losses.
9. Regional and remote communities: limited infrastructure and supply chains leave them especially exposed.
10. Supply chains: climate disruptions will affect access to goods, labour, and services.
11. Water security: threats to water availability will hit households, industry, and cultural values.

Warming scenarios and timeframes

The NCRA uses three warming scenarios: 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C above pre-industrial levels. Each scenario is modelled for the present day, 2050, and 2090. Key projections include:

• Heatwaves: Severe or extreme heatwave days may increase by up to 14 days annually under 3.0°C warming.
• Drought: The time spent in drought could nearly double by 2090 in high-warming scenarios.
• Marine heatwaves: These could last over 160 days annually by 2090, devastating ocean ecosystems.
• Sea level rise: Up to one metre by 2090, with coastal flooding events increasing more than 100-fold.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander perspectives

The NCRA acknowledges that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples face unique risks. Climate change threatens cultural practices, the health of Country, and access to sacred sites. At the same time, Indigenous knowledge is critical in shaping effective adaptation strategies. Respectful collaboration will be key to ensuring resilience for both communities and ecosystems.

Governance and adaptation

One of the most significant risks identified is governance itself. If decision-making structures are not fit to respond to evolving climate risks, maladaptation may occur. This could mean investment in infrastructure or industries that increase, rather than reduce, vulnerability.

Adaptation strategies highlighted in the report include:

• Improved management: Enhancing existing processes without major system changes.
• Incremental adaptation: Gradual shifts, such as updated building codes or farming practices.
• Transformational adaptation: Fundamental changes, like redesigning coastal settlements or shifting major industries.

Governance will determine which pathway Australia takes. Effective leadership, coordination across jurisdictions, and investment in resilience will be crucial.

What this means for Australians

The National Climate Risk Assessment is not just a government document. It is a roadmap for action that will affect households, businesses, and communities. Insurance premiums, food prices, property values, and even where Australians can safely live will all be influenced by climate risks.

The NCRA is also a wake-up call that future risks are not abstract. They are here, growing in severity, and interconnected in ways that demand forward planning.

Conclusion

Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment is a milestone in understanding the threats posed by climate change. It confirms that no part of society is untouched, and no system is isolated. The report underscores the urgency of building resilience, investing in adaptation, and making governance fit for the challenges ahead.

The NCRA provides the evidence base, but action will determine the outcome. Australians now have the chance to shape a climate-resilient future that protects our people, places, and way of life.

You can view the National Climate Risk Assessment here.