A study commissioned by the German Offshore Wind Energy Foundation has found the cost of electricity from offshore wind farms could be reduced by 30 percent over the next decade.
The findings are based on modelling two different scenarios:
1) A business-as-usual development path for the wind power industry out to 2023, in which Germany installs 9 gigawatts of offshore wind, and a total of 20 gigawatts in Europe as a whole, and;
2) An ambitious development path that would see Germany reach a total of 14 gigawatts of installed offshore wind capacity by 2023 and the EU a total of 40 gigawatts. This goal is based on current political and renewable energy policies and assumes an optimum market environment in which all potential cost reductions and advances in wind turbine technology are realised.
The scenarios were applied to three typical offshore wind farm sites earmarked for development in the North Sea. Under scenario one, by 2023 the cost of wind power flowing from all three sites would decrease by an average of 31 percent. Under scenario two, with 14 gigawatts of installed capacity across all three sites, this figure rises to 39 percent.
Offshore wind farm capacities are predicted to increase from 320-megawatts to 450-megawatts over the forecast period, and technological advances would see standard turbines grow from 4MW to 8MW with rotor blades 164 m in diameter.
Co-author of the study (PDF), Frank Peter of Prognos AG, said these bigger and better wind turbines combined with improved logistics, such as more powerful ships used to transport support structures, will be a major factor in achieving cheap renewable energy in the future.
“This [study] is the way to gain project experience, to promote technological innovation and to significantly decrease costs,” said Jens Eckhoff, President of the Foundation OFFSHORE-WINDENERGIE.
“Offshore wind power has a substantial cost reduction potential. However, the industry can only exploit this potential if there are reliable framework conditions to achieve significant market volumes.”
