A breakthrough solar forecasting service developed in the UK looks set to boost efficiency and reduce energy costs.
The innovative technology can predict energy generation from solar PV systems up to 72 hours ahead. The tool was developed by Solar Sheffield, the research arm of the UK’s University of Sheffield.
Sheffield Solar has worked closely with the UK National Grid for the last two years to develop the forecasting tool.
It estimates real-time generation from PV systems, combining weather forecasts with data from live generating systems – providing a forecast for the next 72 hours.
It is primarily intended for electricity grid operators, along with energy generators and traders. However, there are long-term implications for residential use as the technology develops.
Solar forecasting meets growing UK demand
Rapid uptake of solar panels in the UK has seen a growing need to accurate measure and predict solar’s impact.
Renewable energy use in the UK has continued to break records this year.
It made up more than 50 per cent of electricity demand as measured one day in June, with solar power contributing a quarter of demand in late May.
This growing popularity demands greater monitoring of energy sources, according to Solar Sheffield.
This will balance renewable sources with other generating technologies, energy storage and interconnectors, as the nation moves towards a smart grid.
Solar forecasting balances intermittent supply
The fluctuating nature of solar generation affects the balance of supply and demand in the electricity grid.
However, proper forecasting will mitigate disruption in the electricity network, researchers say.
Up to now, an unpredictable supply of solar energy has called for standby generators to provide reserve capacity. This makes it more expensive to manage the grid.
With accurate forecasts, however, reserve amounts are reduced, cutting grid costs and household energy bills.
Frequent updates mean stakeholders are equipped with a high quality solar PV forecast at their fingertips.
This is used in the National Grid’s control room to help balance the supply of energy with fluctuating demand.
