According to a recent energy industry report, renewable sources will account for around 85% of global electricity production by 2050.
The report also forecasts that about a third of electricity supply will come from solar PV by that time.
The report, ‘Energy Transition Outlook 2017’, was produced DNV GL — a quality assurance and risk management consultancy to the energy industry.
DNV GL services both the fossil fuel and renewable energy sectors. The company claims this puts them in a unique position to provide an unbiased analysis of the world’s energy picture.
Key findings of the report:
According to the report, by 2020:
The world will make the shift to more renewable sources without increasing its energy expenditure.
By 2025:
Primary energy supply will peak and there will be a rapid acceleration in the uptake of renewables.
By 2030:
- Global energy demand and consumption will plateau due to greater efficiencies.
- There will be steady progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal of affordable and clean energy for all.
By 2035:
- Around half of cars sold around the world will be electric – which are four times more efficient than combustion engines.
- Gas will be the largest source of energy globally. However, it will peak at 2040 then decline.
By 2041:
- The 2°C ‘carbon budget’ will be exhausted. This means that without focused action, global warming of 2.5°C is possible and we won’t be on target to meet Paris Agreement commitments.
By 2050:
- Solar PV will provide one-third of electricity, followed by wind and hydropower.
- Natural gas will be the major source of global energy supply, while coal and oil will decrease.
- The world will be spending less on energy needs in relative terms than it is currently.
- Renewables will provide the most cost-competitive solution of all energy sources.
- Renewable energy will account for almost half of all energy needs – especially wind and solar.
- Small-scale / residential solar power is likely to become more significant than large-scale plants.
- Connectivity in the energy industry will improve due to digitisation.
Recommendations of the report
Ditlev Engel, CEO of DNV GL – Energy, said the energy industry has the power and knowledge to be smart about how it manages the world’s carbon budget. He also said tackling climate change is more a matter of governance than technology.
The report recommends a number of actions. These include greater uptake of renewables and electric vehicles, improvements in energy efficiency, and increasing the availability of subsidies such as government solar rebates to consumers.
