Within a decade, demand for gas in New South Wales could drop by as much as half – and solar may play a role in that occurring.
While developers in the gas industry have been warning of looming gas shortages in New South Wales, which some say has just been attempt to foul more of the state for export purposes rather than domestic use, the Melbourne Energy Institute says gas demand in NSW will fall.
NSW is facing an “inevitable price shock” and many gas consumers will wave bye-bye to the not-as-green-as-touted fossil fuel; pursuing other forms of energy including solar.
“That could mean that gas investments being made now might never pay off – a similar situation to that in the electricity market, in which demand was forecast to rise continuously but fell instead, leaving infrastructure worth billions of dollars standing under-used, while people on tight budgets felt the impact of price shocks that seemed to come from nowhere,” says the Institute.
The gas industry is still screaming for land to be opened up to unconventional gas extraction, supposedly in a bid to ease prices – which the Institute says likely won’t happen.
The race for gas is accompanied by other risks too. For example, AGL has suspended operations at its Gloucester coal seam gas project north of Newcastle after the discovery of a toxic chemical, BTEX , in flowback water.
Back in 2013, Zero Emissions’ Matthew Wright stated the so-called gas crisis was a fabrication. Mr. Wright said it was a “scare campaign with no basis in fact” by the coal seam gas (CSG) industry.
The Institute says the transition from gas to electric heating could start as soon as this winter as home-owners realise reverse cycle air-conditioners can heat their home more cheaply than gas. These air conditioners can also be run some of the time by solar power systems during daylight hours, meaning less heat and power is required to raise the temperature of an evening.
Solar owners will also discover electric heat pump water heaters are an efficient way to store surplus self-generated energy for later use.
The Institute says it will be crucial for government, business, and the community to decide how, when, why gas should be developed.
“These decisions should be based on the best information that considers a range of credible futures, including the possibility that the pressure on local demand is significantly on the downside.”
The Dash From Gas can be viewed in full here (PDF).
