A new report from the U.S. Department of Energy on the price impacts of its SunShot initiative has found the cost of solar energy in America fell by up to 19 per cent in 2013, with utility-scale photovoltaic systems falling below USD $2 a watt – 59 per cent below what modelled pricing predicted in 2010.
The joint report (PDF), produced by DoE’s Lawrence Berkeley and National Renewable Energy Laboratories, provides historical, recent and future price modelling in the U.S. solar industry as the Obama Administration’s goal of ensuring solar power reaches grid parity with fossil fuels by 2020 draws near.
Since 1998, PV prices nationwide have been on a continuous downward slide, with the largest fall of between 12-19 per cent appearing in 2013 (depending system location and other market factors). This trend is predicted to continue through to 2016 and drop a further 3 – 12 per cent this year.
According to the NREL, many variables affected the modelling outlined in the report, such as such as panel efficiency, mounting structure and geographic location, but the figures revealed SunShot was on track to meet its 2020 target.
“There is a wide-range in analysts’ PV pricing estimates, however a number of analysts are now projecting long-term pricing in line with the targets set by the SunShot Initiative for 2020. At these pricing levels, PV is expected to reach widespread grid parity in the U.S. without federal or state subsidies.”
The DoE’s SunShot Initiative was introduced in 2010 to transform solar power into America’s favoured energy source. SunShot funds universities, national laboratories and private companies to drive down the cost of solar electricity to $0.06 per kilowatt-hour by 2020.
“There is still considerable uncertainty as to how low PV system prices will drop in the next five to 10 years,” said NREL’s David Feldman. “However, there appears to be an emerging consensus that the SunShot’s price reduction targets are within reach and more and more likely to be realized. We see this reflected in the fact that many of the current projections are far lower than projections made in the recent past by the same sources.”
