A report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) states all new power generation in Australia up to 2020 is expected to be renewable energy based.
The AEMO’s National Transmission Network Development Plan 2013 says much of the new electricity to 2020 will be wind (84%), followed by large-scale solar PV (13%), and biomass 3%.
“This includes 168 MW of new wind generation that has recently come online in Tasmania, and a further 131 MW in Victoria, 270 MW in South Australia, and 386 MW in New South Wales committed to come online from 2014–15. AEMO is aware of close to 15,800 MW of proposed wind generation projects.”
The report indicates a current oversupply of generation capacity in the National Electricity Market
“NTNDP modelling estimates a reduction of 3,700 MW in coal-fired generation capacity to 2020. This is approximately 14% of the total current coal-fired installed generation capacity.”
That figure is based on a carbon price being in place. Without a carbon price, the AEMO states modelling results in reductions of around 3,100 MW, or 12% of coal-fired generation capacity.
However, a zero carbon price scenario will also see lower operating costs for brown coal generation – the filthiest version of the fossil fuel – and resulting in a shift towards black coal generation retirement. This indicates while there may still be a reduction in coal fired generation overall; what will remain will be more emissions intensive.
Black coal-fired power stations emit approximately 0.95 kg carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour generated. For brown coal power stations, it’s almost 50% more – around 1.34 kg/kWh.
Unfortunately, the AEMO sees “coal continuing to dominate over the 25-year outlook period and remaining coal-fired generation increases output beyond 2020”
The full National Transmission Network Development Plan 2013 summary can be viewed here (PDF).
