A combination of solar panels and concentrated solar power could be the largest source of electricity globally by 2050, accounting for 27% of world electricity production.
Combined, these solar technologies have the potential to avoid 6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year by the middle of the century says the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Two IEA technology roadmaps unveiled yesterday detail technology improvement targets and the policy actions required to achieve this. The level is entirely achievable – the IEA points out its PV Roadmap in 2010 set an ambitious benchmark of 200 gigawatts of cumulative capacity deployed globally by 2020; a goal that will be reached next year.
137 GW of PV capacity was installed worldwide at the end of 2013 and up to 100 MW of solar panels are being added each day. The IEA sees the 2050 scenario resulting in over half of total capacity installed at the point of consumption – homes and commercial buildings.
The roadmaps forecast solar PV capacity to outpace solar thermal technologies out to 2030, when “massive-scale” STE deployment takes off due to CSP plants’ built-in thermal storage.
In launching Solar Roadmaps 2014, Executive Director of the IEA, Maria van der Hoeven, said there were three main recommendations for policy makers.
First, long term targets for solar electricity must be set or updated that take into account cost reductions already achieved and potential further reductions.
Second, solar technologies need to be progressively exposed to market signals, but taking into account the impacts and value of distributed residential and commercial solar generation; plus differentiating remuneration for generation during peak hours in the late afternoons and evenings.
Third, de-risking financing should become a key policy priority.
Ms. van der Hoeven’s closing statement is one Australia’s Federal Government should perhaps take special note of:
“Clear, credible and consistent signals from policy makers can lower risks to investors and inspire confidence. By contrast, where there is a record of policy incoherence, confusing signals or stop-and-go policy cycles, investors end up paying more for their investment, consumers pay more for their energy, and some planned projects simply will not go ahead.”
The roadmaps, presentation and Ms. van der Hoeven’s speech can be downloaded here.
