A renewable energy share surge broke another record last month. Renewables now supply over a quarter of the National Electricity Market (NEM).
That’s the finding of the Australia Institute’s latest quarterly Emissions Audit. It shows a “surge in wind and solar projects” is now acting as one of the only things reducing national power prices.
In August, grid renewables, including hydro, supplied 23 per cent of all generation to the market. Variable renewable sources, such as wind and grid-scale solar, supplied 11 per cent. By adding rooftop solar power, this figure rises to 25.6 per cent of total renewable generation.
Renewable energy’s share of total grid supply, including rooftop solar, in the 12 months to August was 19.7 per cent. This figure eclipses the previous record share, reached in early 2014 during the dying days of the carbon price. It’s also not far short of the 2020 Renewable Energy Target (RET) for large-scale renewables.
Renewable energy share by state
Wind energy provided 55 per cent of power generation to South Australia in August. Gas supplied the remaining 45 per cent. Wind and rooftop solar energy combined supplied nearly 60 per cent of South Australia’s total power requirements.
This meant that South Australia became a net exporter of electricity to Victoria. It also had the lowest wholesale prices in the NEM at $72/MWh — 19 per cent lower than NSW, which saw the highest price at $93/MWh.
Victoria’s wholesale price of $79/MWh is the the second-lowest in the market. Its total share of renewables in August reached 18.9 per cent, up from just 12.3 per cent in 2015. As a result, the report predicts that on current trends, Victoria will comfortably meet its 25 per cent RET by 2020.
In the four months since the end of April, wind generation connected to the NEM grid has increased by 14 per cent. Likewise large-scale solar power, which has increased from a relatively low base, by 93 per cent.
Surge in renewable energy share expected to 2020
Similarly, the report forecast a continued surge in renewable energy over the next two years. Quoting official Energy Security Board numbers, the report suggests that by 2020 wind generation capacity will be 41 per cent higher than today. Total solar connected will be three times higher.
This additional electricity flowing into the NEM equates to the current total annual output from Eraring, the largest power station in Australia, and double the annual output of the Liddell coal station.
Audit author Hugh Saddler said advocates for new generation in government are completely ignoring the massive increase in renewable capacity.
“This volume of new generation is likely to significantly increase competition in the NEM wholesale electricity market, thereby putting downward pressure on prices,” he said.
