Australia’s energy trilemma – affordable and reliable electricity supply that meets climate agreement obligations – can be solved most economically through renewable energy plus storage.
Energy and carbon advisory firm RepuTex says renewables are now the cheapest source of reliable electricity generation in Australia, due to the plummeting costs of storage and the rapidly increasing price of gas.
Reputex’s in-depth study found flexible supplies such as solar power facilities with battery storage are expected to result in a decreasing need for conventional “baseload-only” facilities and overcome intermittency issues.
While the addition of energy storage raises the cost recovery for renewables considerably, the firm says on a like-for-like basis clean energy is now cheaper than gas-fired generation.
“Traditionally, gas-fired generators have been the least cost technology that could provide energy security, such as load-following and peaking services, however the rising price of gas has increased the levelised cost of any new gas build in Australia,” said Bret Harper, head of research at RepuTex.
“At the same time, the decline in capital costs for new wind and solar projects, and improvements in storage performance, have seen renewable project costs fall.”
As for aspirations for “clean coal” in Australia using technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and High Efficiency, Low Emissions” (HELE) plants, Reputex says these will not be commercial viable until at least 2025. This means they will contribute little towards Australia’s 2030 target under the Paris Agreement.
With regard to emissions reductions, the study found demand reduction through the uptake of solar panels offers the lowest marginal cost of emissions reductions for the electricity sector
More from the report, “An Energy Trilemma: A cost curve for emissions reductions & energy storage in the Australian electricity sector”, can be viewed here. The study involved consultation with dozens of industry participants; including electricity generators and industrial consumers.
In related news, ABC reports Australia faces a very real risk of major gas shortage from next year that would threaten electricity supply and security in several states. The threat has arisen from Australia’s mad rush to export liquefied natural gas, production from existing gas fields declining and electricity demand increasing.
The situation doesn’t come as any surprise – warnings of the impact of exporting Australia’s gas in huge quantities go back to 2013.
