The Federal Government is inviting wind and solar power plant operators to self forecast energy output as part of a new $10 million ARENA-funded trial, the AFR reports.
If successful, the project should improve grid stability and could potentially reduce energy costs for consumers.
Under the current model, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecasts solar energy generation through its forecasting system, which has been operating since 2014.
This involves predicting energy generation for solar power stations of 30 MW capacity or higher, with forecasting time frames ranging from 5 minutes to 2 years. The AEMO also performs forecasts for small-scale solar power systems of 100 kW or less.
How forecasting improves grid stability
Forecasting solar energy in this way helps to balance supply and demand and improve grid stability. However, forecasting solar generation is not always accurate.
If output is lower than predicted, solar plants become restricted in how much power they can feed to the grid for payment. If output is too high they may be charged for the cost of stabilising the grid. Unfortunately, consumers often bear the brunt of these costs.
The proposed self forecast energy model
Wind and solar farms involved in the trial will self-forecast output, allowing for local factors such as weather changes and cloudy conditions. These predictions would then be submitted to AEMO and combined with its own forecasts, hopefully improving accuracy.
Anticipated benefits of the trial include:
- Better integration of renewable energy into the grid.
- Greater grid stability.
- Reduced energy costs all round.
- Fewer restrictions on output for wind and solar producers.
The trial-funding announcement follows last week’s report on grid stability and battery storage from the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC). While adding renewables to the energy mix can lead to grid instability, the AEMC says energy storage batteries may be key in mitigating this. The reason for this is stored energy steps in when the sun is down or the wind is not blowing, helping even out peaks and troughs in grid demand.
Meanwhile, the cost of solar panels and battery storage is also falling all the time. Many households and businesses in Australia are latching on and seeking out reliable solar quotes to reduce power bills.
ARENA is seeking expressions of interest in the self-forecast trial from wind and solar project operators. This includes turbine and solar manufacturers as well as renewable energy generators.
