Deutsche Bank has painted a sunny picture for solar in India, stating annual investments in the clean power technology could surpass investment in coal by 2019.
In its India 2020: Utilities & Renewables report, the Bank has raised its solar power forecast for India by 240%; to 34GW by 2020.
“This is on the back of strong commissioning (4.5GW), even stronger pipeline – under construction (~5.1GW), and new projects (~15 GW),” says the report.
By 2020, renewables could account for 20% of the nation’s power generation capacity – and the electricity will be cheaper than coal.
Solar’s effect on coal consumption could be significant; reducing coal requirements by ~8% or 70 million tonnes by 2020 and leading to savings of approximately USD $17 billion per annum on coal imports.
As a side note, RenewEconomy’s Giles Parkinson points out “it would be devastating to the Abbott government’s hopes of expanding the Australian thermal coal export industry, particularly in the Galilee Basin. The demand is simply not there, particularly with imports from China also falling by one half.”
With regard to India’s goal of adding 100GW solar power capacity by 2022 (40GW rooftop installations, 60GW large-scale), Deutsche Bank feels that while it is technically feasible, a comprehensive strategy is still needed to achieve it.
India had installed ~4.5GW of solar capacity by June this year will likely add 3 – 5GW annually.
“It is expected to continue to grow at a healthy pace, but may still not be sufficient to achieve the 100GW target by 2022,” says the Bank.
If India is somehow able to meet the 100GW target, the nation will be among the largest renewable energy producers globally, outpacing several developed countries.
India is not short on sunlight – it’s bathed in solar radiation levels of 5-7KWh/m2 and has an estimated installed solar potential of 748,990MW.
For consumers, based on recent bids for solar and coal, tariff parity has already almost arrived. For commercial consumers, solar power without capital subsidies is already competitive or cheaper than grid electricity in states including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
The nation has attracted a great deal of attention from international developers, who will invest USD $35bn+ in renewable energy in the country.
SunEdison’s president and chief executive officer, Ahmad Chatila, said last month India is a core market for the company. Among its many projects in the country, SunEdison signed a memorandum of understanding with the state government of Karnataka in January to develop 5GW of wind and solar over the next five years.
The full India 2020: Utilities & Renewables can be viewed here (PDF).
