IEA World Energy Outlook 2010

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) was released overnight; providing projections of global energy production and consumption to 2035.

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) was released overnight; providing projections of global energy production and consumption to 2035.
  
In the New Policies Scenario, world primary energy demand increases by 36% between 2008 and 2035, or 1.2% per year on average, with non-OECD countries; including China, accounting for 93% of the projected increase in global energy demand.
  
Oil will remain the major contributor to the  primary energy mix to 2035, but high prices will push a shift to alternatives. Interesting to note is that according to the IEA data, traditional crude oil production has already begun to flatten, heralding peak oil‘s arrival in relation to these sources. A disturbing projection is the rapidly increasing share of carbon emissions intensive shale and tar sands derived oil production, along with coal-to-liquid and gas-to-liquid sources in the years ahead, supplying around 10% of world oil demand by 2035 compared with less than 3% today. 
  
In the New Policies Scenario, the average IEA crude oil price is $113 per barrel (in 2009 dollars) in 2035.
  
Demand for coal will rise up until around 2020 and will start to decline towards the end of the Outlook period and nuclear energy will increase from 6% of the energy mix in 2008 to 8% in 2035.
   
Demand for natural gas will skyrocket 44% between 2008 and 2035 – an average rate of increase of 1.4% per year.
  
The IEA points out that fossil-fuel subsidies, which are common in many countries, “will result in an economically inefficient allocation of resources and market distortions, while often failing to meet their stated objectives.”
  
In terms of renewable energy, under the New Policies Scenario, renewables-based generation will triple between 2008 and 2035, with renewables in global electricity generation increasing from 19% in 2008 to almost one-third; primarily from wind energy and hydropower, with the latter being dominant.
  
Solar panel based electricity consumption will continue to increase rapidly, although it’s role in  global generation reaches only around 2% in 2035. 
  
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010
  

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