A new report from BP states that as global energy demand continues to grow over the next twenty years, renewable energy is set to become the fastest growing source of power through to 2030.
BP’s latest "Energy Outlook 2030" (PDF) report shows global renewable energy generation, fuelled by population booms in non-OECD countries, rising by eight percent each year over the next two decades. This growth would outpace that of natural gas, which at two percent represents the fastest growing form of fossil fuel.
Despite energy efficiency measures in transportation and power generation, energy demand worldwide will likely exceed 39 percent by 2030, with the majority of this demand coming from China, India and the Middle East – non-OECD countries account for just a four percent rise over the forecast period.
The increase in replacing coal and oil with renewable energy and biofuels and the controversial exploitation of unconventional supply, including U.S. shale oil and gas, Canadian oil sands and Brazilian deepwater could see the Western Hemisphere become almost entirely energy self-sufficient.
Demand for crude oil, principally in Asia, will not abate, rising 18 percent on 2010 levels to 103 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Iraq were identified as the major sources of supply, cornering the market on gas-related liquid as the region’s share of global oil supply rises to 34 per cent by 2030.
Although renewable energy continues its rapid rise in the energy mix, the future remains dominated by big oil, coal and natural gas, with fossil fuels predicted to account for 81 per cent of global energy demand by 2030 – albeit down six percent from 2011 levels.
Under this scenario, global CO2 emissions are likely to rise by 28 percent by 2030. This figure is lower than energy demand growth rates, largely due to the rapid rise of large-scale renewable projects.
The report points out: “If more aggressive [renewable energy support] policies than currently envisioned are introduced, global CO2 emissions could begin to decline by 2030.”
For all its apparent optimism in regard to renewables, BP recently announced it would be exiting the solar panel manufacturing sector due to reasons relating to profitability.
