It may have been a tough year economically speaking, but U.S. grid connect solar power demand will reach at least 440 MW in 2009, up from 320 MW in 2008 according to GTM Research.
The residential sector and local/state government projects have been driving the growth due to stimulus funding and the recently uncapped residential Investment Tax Credit. California remains the leader in terms of market share, accounting for 205 MW, or 50 percent of national demand.
Looking ahead, the report predicts the U.S. solar panel market will become a global demand leader by 2012, possibly surpassing Germany and Spain. The sector will grow to between 1,515 MW-2,022MW in that year, with annual growth from 2008 to 2012 averaging 48 percent.
States with high levels of demand, such as New Jersey and California, have already experienced electricity price parity in particular market segments, while others are on the brink. By 2012, 11 of 16 states will have surpassed price convergence in the commercial sector, and ten will have done so in the residential sector.
The report also predicts the expansion of residential solar financing through leases or power purchases agreements will enable the residential sector to grow to 363 MW by 2012 in the base case scenario.
Solar farms at utility scale will be the fast movers between now and 2012, grabbing market share from the commercial sector and reaching 466 MW in the 2012 regulatory scenario.
Like Australia, the U.S. does not offer a singular demand market for solar panels and its 50 states has a unique set of incentives, regulations, electricity prices and political processes.
Source: United States PV Market: Project Economics, Policy, Demand, and Strategy Through 2013
