Wind and solar energy generation will help protect Australians from electricity blackouts this summer.
According to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Victoria and South Australia face a high risk of blackouts if no action is taken.
AEMO’s Summer 2018-19 Readiness Plan aims to minimise the risk of customer supply disruption.
To do this, AEMO has sourced emergency energy reserves. These expensive resources are only accessed when supply is not keeping up with demand, such as when air-conditioners are ramped up.
Triple the risk of El Niño in 2018
The report warns that drought, bushfire damage to networks and heat waves are all potential hazards this summer, and that these may lead to electricity blackouts.
“There is about a 70% chance (triple the normal risk) of El Niño occurring in 2018,” the report states. “An El Niño would mean an increased likelihood of lower rainfall this summer and, consequently, drought relief is less likely.”
AEMO says the total Australian energy need should be higher this summer. However, the growing contribution of rooftop solar PV means this should not cause higher grid demand.
Rooftop solar owners use their own power during daylight hours, then draw on grid supply in the evenings.
However, households with solar panels and a solar storage battery have even less impact on the grid. That’s because they can draw on their own stored solar energy in the evenings.
AEMO secures extra power to avoid electricity blackouts
To secure the power supply against electricity blackouts in Victoria and SA, AEMO has already secured the 120 MW of power it needs.
For summer 2017-18, 1,141 MW of reliability resources were available, and the final cost was $51.99 million. This covered payments for availability ($27.03 million), pre-activation ($21.56 million), and activation ($3.23 million).
Customers in South Australia and Victoria subsequently paid for these additional resources. AEMO expects the total cost for 2018-19 will be lower than last summer.
AEMO’s planning for Victoria includes some supply changes with increased wind and solar generation capacity. It also takes into account two new utility-scale battery installations at Ballarat (30 MW ) and Gannawarra (25 MW).
For context, the NEM’s total registered generation capacity in July 2018 was around 56,000 MW, of which wind and solar represented around 6,000 MW. This is in addition to the 1.1 GW of new rooftop solar capacity installed in 2017.
