New South Wales (NSW) solar households received a significant piece of news on 25 May 2026. The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) released its updated feed-in tariff (FiT) benchmarks for 2026-27, and the headline number is not good for most people with panels on their roof.
The flat-rate FiT, the standard rate most solar households receive for exporting electricity to the grid, has dropped again. IPART now recommends retailers pay between 3.4 and 6.5 cents pr kilowatt-hour for daytime solar exports, down from 4.8 to 7.3 cents in 2025-26.
The reason, according to IPART tribunal member Jonathan Coppel, is straightforward. More rooftop solar and more grid-scale renewables are flooding the network during the day, pushing wholesale electricity prices down. When the underlying value of electricity drops, the rate paid for exported solar drops with it.
For more than 4 million Australian households with rooftop solar, this continues a trend that has been running for years. The era of generous FiTs is long gone, and the flat-rate export is becoming less valuable with every passing year.
But buried in the same IPART release is a set of numbers that tells a very different story.
The evening peak changes everything
While the flat-rate FiT is falling, IPART’s time-of-use (TOU) benchmarks reveal that solar exports are not equally worthless at all hours. The value of electricity swings dramatically depending on when it enters the grid, and the evening peak window is where the real numbers live.
For 2026-27, IPART sets the following benchmark ranges for evening solar exports in NSW:
- Ausgrid customers can expect between 17.2 and 18.7 cents per kWh for exports between 4pm and 9pm
- Endeavour Energy customers could receive between 16.9 and 19.9 cents per kWh between 4pm and 8pm
- Essential Energy customers in regional NSW could earn between 26.6 and 33.3 cents per kWh between 5pm and 8pm
These numbers are not a rounding error. At their peak, they represent an export rate roughly 5 to 10 times higher than what most solar households are currently receiving on a flat-rate plan.
The reason for this spike comes down to how the grid behaves across the day. During the middle of the day, rooftop solar from millions of households floods the network simultaneously, pushing wholesale electricity prices close to zero and sometimes below.
By late afternoon, solar generation tapers off as the sun drops, but household demand surges as people arrive home, turn on air conditioning, cook dinner, and charge devices. Supply drops, demand rises, and the value of electricity on the grid climbs sharply.
This pattern, known as the solar duck curve, is not unique to NSW. It is a national phenomenon affecting every state with significant rooftop solar penetration, which by 2026 means every state in the country.
The retailer gap
Here is where the news gets uncomfortable for most solar households.
IPART sets benchmarks. It does not set rules. Retailers operating in NSW are under no legal obligation to pay the ToU rates the regulator recommends. They can, and mostly do, offer flat-rate FiTs regardless of when solar is exported.
As of today, only 4 retailers in NSW offer FiTs that vary by the time of day: Red Energy, CovAU, Energy Locals, and Globird Energy. Flow Power offers a structure that pays zero cents per kWh outside peak hours but 45 cents per kWh between 5:30 and 7:30pm daily. Amber Electric ties its FiT rate to the live wholesale spot price, which can spike well above standard tariffs during demand events but offers no guarantees.
That is a small number of options in the most populous state in the country. The overwhelming majority of NSW solar households are sitting on flat-rate export plans earning 3-6 cents per kWh around the clock, including during the evening window when the grid would pay significantly more if a retail product passed that value through.
This gap between what the network values solar at and what retailers actually pay is not a NSW-specific problem. Queensland, Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia all have network-level evening peak pricing that rarely reaches solar households in any meaningful way. The retailer sits between the network and the homeowner, and for most retailers, there is no commercial incentive to share that premium with existing customers who are already on flat-rate plans.
Why a battery changes the maths entirely
For most solar households, capturing the evening peak window without a battery is largely impossible. Solar generation drops off well before 5pm in autumn and winter, which is precisely when the evening peak and its higher export rates begin. A household exporting solar at 2pm is earning the lowest rate of the day. By 6pm, the panels have stopped generating entirely.
A home battery removes this constraint.
With a battery in the system, a household can store surplus solar generation during the middle of the day when the flat-rate value is lowest, and choose to dispatch that stored energy into the grid during the evening peak window when the rate climbs to 17, 25, or 33 cents per kWh. The battery transforms a passive solar system into one that can time the market with its own stored energy.
This is the financial case for solar plus battery that goes well beyond simple self-consumption. Under a ToU FiT with the right retailer, a battery household in regional NSW could theoretically earn more than 33 cents for every kilowatt-hour it dispatches between 5pm and 8pm. Against an import rate of 30-40 cents per kWh, that fundamentally changes the return calculation for battery storage.
The federal government’s Cheaper Home Batteries rebate, which has driven installations from around 200 per day to over 1,500 since launching in July 2025, means this opportunity is now within reach for a much wider pool of Australian households. The hardware is becoming accessible. The question is whether the retail market will develop the products to make the most of it.
What solar homeowners should do now
The IPART update applies specifically to NSW, but the underlying dynamics apply nationally. If you have rooftop solar anywhere in the country, two questions are worth asking today.
- What rate is your retailer currently paying for your exports, and at what times of day? Most households signed up for a flat-rate FiT years ago and have never revisited it. The market has changed considerably since then, and a small number of retailers are now offering structures that better reflect when solar is actually valuable.
- Whether your current retailer offers a ToU FiT or VPP arrangement that would reward evening dispatch. A battery paired with the wrong retail plan will still deliver self-consumption savings, but it will miss the growing value sitting in the evening peak window.
The regulator has done its part by quantifying what evening solar is worth and making those numbers public. The retail market has been slower to follow. Until more retailers build products that pass the evening peak value through to solar households, the households that benefit will be the ones who actively seek out the plans that do.
Energy Matters has been in the solar industry since 2005 and has helped over 40,000 Australian households in their journey to energy independence.
Complete our quick Solar Quote Quiz to receive up to 3 FREE solar quotes from trusted local installers – it’ll only take you a few minutes and is completely obligation-free.
